Heading into Saturday night's game in Atlanta Notre Dame had won 4 of their last 5 and things were finally looking up. However, that snowy Saturday night in Atlanta changed things for the Irish. Led by Juwan Durham, Notre Dame played one of their best halfs of the season to cruise into a fifteen point lead at halftime. Right out of the gate in the second half, it was clear things were different. Georgia Tech turned up their pressure to force turnover after turnover with their press. Notre Dame would eventually go on to blow yet another double digit lead. We've seen this movie before, but this loss is much more than just another blown lead.
Notre Dame needed to win this game badly. All momentum the Irish had going into the last stretch of their schedule is now gone. All of the remaining games the Irish will play are winnable, but if you they can't beat Georgia Tech, it's hard to see a way they make a run late in the season against teams like Florida State, Louisville, Clemson, and Duke. Although the circumstances and the way the games played out are different. This game draws parallels to the second Wake Forest game last season in that it was a game that Notre Dame needed to win badly to keep their tournament hopes alive and didn't. Unlike last year's loss at Wake Forest this one doesn't completely end their chances, but it does severely hinder them. Notre Dame's road to March Madness is now much harder to envision than it was previously.
Teamrankings.com estimates that just six ACC teams will make an appearance in Indianapolis ( Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Clemson). The lowest projected win total of those teams is 17. As of now the Irish stand at 7-10 (4-6) with eight games to go. Based on that estimation the Irish will need to get at least ten more wins to be on the bubble, even with Notre Dame's easier end to the schedule ten more wins seems nearly impossible, especially if the ACC tournament is hindered by the virus. Even though Notre Dame is in the same conference as all of those teams they may not need need to get to the same win threshold that the other teams in the league do. The Irish have the sixteenth hardest schedule in the country, and while they haven't taken advantage of their opportunities to get big wins, their strength of their schedule could end up helping them on Selection Sunday. If the Irish are able to get on the bubble of the tournament it will be because they go on a run at the end of the season. If Notre Dame is able to win enough games to get on the bubble of the tournament they will be one of the hottest teams in the country. Momentum won't be the deciding factor in the decision of whether to put the Irish in or not but it certainly can't hurt their tournament chances if they are on a roll heading into Selection Sunday.
It seems unlikely that Mike Brey and his team can get to 15 or 16 wins but if Notre Dame can somehow get to that number (One or two of those would be in Greensboro) it seems plausible that they could get in to the tournament because of their strength of schedule and positive momentum heading into the big dance. It's up to you to decide how likely it is that they get there.
As of now ESPN has Notre Dame ranked 62nd in the country and teamrankings.com gives them an 8% chance to make the tournament.
If the Irish drop a few more games they will likely be playing for an NIT birth the rest of the way. However, that isn't a given either. To get to the NIT, Notre Dame will likely have to finish with at least a .500 record. Right now the Irish are sitting three games below .500, so to get above it they will have to go at least 6-2 through the rest of the regular season with a win in the ACC tournament. That would put them at 14-13. While nobody wants to settle for the NIT, it would be a good opportunity for a group that has no postseason experience outside of Nik Djogo.
This weekend's deflating loss makes things extremely difficult moving forward for the Irish, but there is still plenty to play for as we enter the last stretch of Notre Dame's season.
Follow us on twitter @NDbballanalysis for more Notre Dame basketball content.
コメント