What makes March madness so special is the unpredictability. Sometimes the pick that seems to good to be true is. Sometimes matchup's don't matter and chaos ensues. However, a lot of the time matchups do matter, and for a Notre Dame team with obvious flaws, they likely will.
Although they only have a few big wins, Notre Dame has had some success against good teams throughout the year and those teams have had some things in common. Notre Dame would probably like to see teams that:
Rely heavily on one or two guards to generate offense.
In recent years, a star opposing guard has generally been a death sentence for Notre Dame teams. This year that statement hasn't been as true.
Mike Brey's team has been able to slow down or completely neutralize opposing guards like Isaiah Wong, Dereon Seabron, Michael Devoe, TyTy Washington, Caleb Love, among others. Each of those defensive performances led to wins for the Irish. The differences between this year's Notre Dame team and past years' are Notre Dame's improved zone and the high level defensive guards on the roster like Cormac Ryan and Blake Wesley. Those guys ability to stay in front of quick guards and to challenge them is a welcome addition for a coaching staff that has emphasized defense all season and something that can help them in the big dance.
Guards win in March and seeing high level ones isn't exactly ideal, but Notre Dame is more well equipped than most teams to contain them.
Example: Miami, Projected 10 Seed.
This is somewhat of a cheap answer because Notre Dame already beat the Hurricanes on the road, but the defensive effort from Notre Dame's guards held Charlie Moore, Isaiah Wong, and Kameron McGusty to just 37 points total. That would be 12.3 points each which is below each of their season averages. Notre Dame showed how they can contain high level guards during their big win in Coral Gables.
Another team who heavily relies on their guards to generate offense is Arkansas, A projected 4 seed.
Slow to Intermediate Paced Teams
Notre Dame has proven that they can find ways to win in track meets, but their comfort zone is a game with a final score in the mid 60's where they can get their offense flowing and save their stars' legs. This would be especially important in a tournament setting because if the Irish are constantly in shootouts, their starters will eventually lose their legs. A slow to intermediate paced matchup would check all the boxes for Notre Dame.
In the Barrtorrik metrics, Notre Dame ranks 259th in terms of their tempo and In the majority of wins the Irish have scored in either the 60's or 70's. A team that is similar in those areas would be ideal for Notre Dame in a tournament setting.
Example: Michigan, projected last four in.
Michigan is a team Notre Dame could very well see in the first four if the Irish end up there. The Wolverines like to slow it down and play through Hunter Dickinson. Juwan Howard's team is ranked 232nd in pace by Barrtorvik, which is a similar pace to what Notre Dame runs. The matchup isn't great for Notre Dame because of Michigan's deep frontline and tendency to play big, but their pace could help Notre Dame out in a tournament setting.
Teams that rely on a face up big man to generate offense
A few teams that Notre Dame could face off against in the 1st round of the tournament have built their offenses around face up big men, that would be ideal for Notre Dame because of one player. Nate Laszewski. The senior big man has an argument for Notre Dame's most improved defender and can really slow down a face up big man because of his size, newfound physicality, and ability to stay in front of smaller bigs.
Example: Colorado State, projected 7 seed.
Colorado State would be a near perfect matchup for Notre Dame because of the way they generate offense, the Rams typically rely heavily on David Roddy to score out of face-ups and Isaiah Stevens to create off the bounce. Notre Dame has historically contained guys like that pretty well. Colorado State also doesn't have the type of size or athleticism that should overwhelm Notre Dame.
Teams with big men who can't guard on the perimeter
Notre Dame has pulled out a few unlikely wins because of their ability to stretch the floor against immobile big men. Paul Atkinson's ability on the block and experience can really help Notre Dame in the big dance, but their offensive ceiling may be higher without him on the floor. At times this year Notre Dame has played five out with Nate Laszewski manning the five next to four guards. If teams can't guard Laszewski out there it allows Notre Dame to open things up offensively and show how explosive they can be.
Notre Dame's senior forward forces teams with big men that aren't quick on their feet to choose between giving Laszewski open looks, taking a productive big out of the game, or to take their chances guarding Laszewski on the perimeter. The Irish have taken advantage of lumbering big men like Brady Manek and Kofi Cockburn by going small and being intentional about exploiting those matchups.
Example: Xavier, projected first four out
There's a strong argument that Xavier's best two players are their two big men. Zach Freemantle can guard a bit on the perimeter, but Travis Steele has typically tried to hide Jack Nunge by dropping him in ball screen coverage. Notre Dame's small ball lineup could take advantage of this by putting Nunge into pick and rolls against Nate Laszewski and forcing him to play up on Laszewski.
Notre Dame does have some flaws that can be exploited and have been exploited this season. The Irish would likely want to avoid:
Teams with multiple big men who are physical but can also guard on the perimeter.
In terms of building a frontcourt to beat Mike Brey's team, the blueprint is out. Use two big men who are physical down low but are also are mobile enough to guard smaller forwards and guards on the perimeter. The opponents in all Notre Dame's six ACC losses all used this formula and took advantage of the Irish with it.
Notre Dame had trouble with a team like this just earlier this week in Brooklyn when they dropped their ACC tournament opener to Virginia Tech. Paul Atkinson and Nate Laszewski struggled with the physicality of Keve Aluma and Justyn Mutts which led to easy post up scores and can lead to foul trouble. Notre Dame also struggled to run their small ball lineup with Dane Goodwin at the four because Aluma and Mutts are too physical to be consistently shadowed by a guard. Brey has often taken his lumps with a small ball lineup defensively, but against teams like Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Florida State, the four guard lineup also struggled to deal with the length and athleticism of the opponents.
Notre Dame isn't particularly well equipped to deal with deep, physical frontcourts when they have two bigs on the floor, but their lack of a third big man makes them even less equipped to deal with it. When Nate Laszewski or Paul Atkinson needs a breather ND is almost forced to go with a small ball lineup that struggles on both ends against a team like this.
Example: LSU, Projected 6 seed.
LSU has exactly the type of frontcourt that doesn't want to see in the tournament, one that is deep, full of athletes, and full of size. LSU has two high level face up bigs in Tari Eason and Darius Days, a true center who is about as physically gifted as they come in Efton Reid, and a versatile defensive piece who is used at the four in Alex Fudge. A team like the Tigers could give Notre Dame some trouble even if their bigs aren't quite as good as Virginia Tech's.
Teams with Length and Athleticism on the Perimeter
As simple as it sounds, it's true. Notre Dame has struggled to put up high level scoring performances against teams full of athletes. Notre Dame's worst offensive performance of the season came against Duke when they were held to 43 points by the Blue Devils. Less talented teams like NC State and Florida State also made things hard on the Irish offense because of their length and athleticism. Notre Dame has been significantly worse this season when Dane Goodwin hasn't had big scoring nights and the combination of athleticism plus reach has messed with the senior more than any other player.
Example: Memphis, Projected 8 seed.
Penny Hardaway's team has really hit their stride over the last few weeks and a lot of that has had to do with their defense. The Tigers have really bought in as a group and have a few nice pieces like Lester Quinones, Landers Nolley, and DeAndre Williams who can really disrupt things with their size on the perimeter. Jalen Duren would also give Notre Dame's bigs some trouble down low. Memphis is a team that Notre Dame would likely have some trouble with.
For a team with the flaws that Notre Dame has, getting a good matchup will be imperative to their success. They are a group that is built to have a high ceiling in March but will likely need to get a good draw to hit that ceiling.
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